Palantir Stock Is Still a ‘Golden Goose’ Despite Q1 Earnings Fears
Nobody could fault a Palantir Technologies (PLTR) investor for taking a victory lap. The stock has been one of the top performers in the market this decade, jumping an impressive 566% over the last five years. A $10,000 investment in Palantir in May 2021 would be worth $66,600 today – not bad at all! But…
Nobody could fault a Palantir Technologies (PLTR) investor for taking a victory lap. The stock has been one of the top performers in the market this decade, jumping an impressive 566% over the last five years. A $10,000 investment in Palantir in May 2021 would be worth $66,600 today – not bad at all!
But hold on to your hats. According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who is one of the most influential tech analysts, Palantir may just be getting started. Ives says that the artificial intelligence revolution is only in the “third inning,” and that Palantir is the leading software company that is leaning into the rapid growth of AI.
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Palantir’s first-quarter earnings results, released May 4, is “another strong drop the mic quarter of beats across the board,” Ives said, and that Palantir is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI, government spending, and enterprise adoption.
Let’s look closer at Palantir’s results, and if Ives’ bull case holds up to scrutiny.
About Palantir Stock
Palantir is a data analytics company, but even that doesn’t really describe what the company does. Here’s how CEO Alex Karp described it in an interview with Wired:
“If you’re an intelligence agency, you’re using us to find terrorists and organized criminals while maintaining the security and data protection of your country. Then you have the special forces. How do you know where your troops are? How do you get in and out of the battlefield as safely as possible, avoiding mines, avoiding enemies? Then there’s Palantir on the commercial side. The shorthand is if you’re doing anything that involves operational intelligence, whether it’s analytics or AI, you’re going to have to find something like our products.”
The company has sophisticated platforms that gather data from thousands of points, including satellite images, to provide real-time intelligence to military units and intelligence agencies. And its commercial business is growing fast as well, as companies look to use AI and Palantir’s insights to manage supply chains, inventory, and competitive analysis.
Palantir, which recently moved its headquarters from Denver to Miami, has a market capitalization of $320 billion.
While shares are up big over the last five years, Palantir stock hasn’t been as successful in the last 12 months, rising only 23.73%. Most notably, shares have fallen 34% since reaching a high in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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Palantir is also known for its extremely high valuation – something that the recent pullback in stock has helped to rectify. Palantir’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is a lofty 92.26 – but in December it was more than 240, making Palantir appear almost reasonably priced right now.
Palantir Beats on Earnings
As Ives has indicated, Palantir’s first-quarter earnings report continued to show the company’s strength. Revenue of $1.63 billion was up 85% from a year ago. Net income of $870.5 million was up 53% from last year, leading Palantir to post earnings per share of $0.33 versus expectations of $0.28.
U.S. government revenue continued to lead the way, resulting in revenue of $697 million for the quarter, up 84% from a year ago. But U.S. commercial revenue jumped even faster, 133% from a year ago, to reach $595 million. Palantir reported closing 206 deals in the quarter worth more than $1 million. Of those, 72 were more than $5 million, and 47 were more than $10 million.
“Our financial results now demonstrate a level of strength that dwarfs the performance of essentially every software company in history at this scale,” Karp said in a letter to shareholders.
Interestingly, however, Palantir stock dropped nearly 9% following its earnings report. Part of the problem was that U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the 133% growth in Q1 was actually a slight slowdown. But Ives dismissed those concerns, pointing out management’s explanation that a $20 million contract was recategorized from commercial revenue to government revenue.
Management posted guidance for the second quarter of revenue between $1.797 billion and $1.801 billion, which would be a 79% increase from a year ago. Full-year guidance includes revenue between $7.650 billion and $7.662 billion, which would be a 71% gain from 2025.
What Do Analysts Expect for Palantir Stock?
Not every analyst is as bullish as Ives, but the company is gradually building support among the experts. Twenty-eight analysts who cover the stock have a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. But the number who have “Strong Buy” ratings has nearly doubled from three months ago, and only two have “Sell” ratings. The mean price target of $190.88 represents potential upside of 39.5%, while the most bullish target of $255 represents upside of 86.4%.
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I’ve long been a Palantir bull myself, even at higher valuations, so I’m comfortable with my position here. Palantir’s AI-infused software is a game-changer for companies, and it’s integrating with the military and multiple federal offices as Washington further embraces AI. Even while the valuation remains high, Palantir is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the AI boom.
On the date of publication, Patrick Sanders had a position in: PLTR. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
