THE GIST
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If you’re quiet enough, you can hear Masayoshi Son exhale. SoftBank’s blind bet on OpenAI worked, delivering the best annual earnings the company has seen in years. The Vision Fund posted roughly $46 billion in gains for the fiscal year ending March 2026, catapulting group net profit to record highs. For now, Son’s leveraged single-stock bet on the AI boom is paying off. Whether it stays that way is a different conversation.
WHAT HAPPENED
First, the numbers. SoftBank’s net income attributable to shareholders surged 333.7% to $31.8 billion for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, reflecting massive investment gains across its portfolio. Consolidated net sales rose 7.7% to $49.6 billion, while income before tax jumped 259.9% to $39 billion.
The engine driving all of it was OpenAI. The fair value of SoftBank’s total investment hit $79.6 billion at year-end, against a cumulative investment cost of $34.6 billion — a valuation gain of $45 billion recorded in a single year. OpenAI’s valuation rocketed from $157 billion in October 2025 to $852 billion by March 2026, roughly a 5.4x increase in five months, while the AI lab hit a $2 billion monthly revenue run rate.
WHY IT MATTERS
The valuation arithmetic is staggering. It better be, because this is an all-or-nothing bet. In February, SoftBank entered a $30 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI, then a $40 billion bridge loan. Total committed capital now stands at $64.6 billion for a roughly 13% ownership stake.
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The price has been real. SoftBank has been liquidating everything else to fund it, selling T-Mobile stock for $16.2 billion and monetizing Nvidia holdings for $5.8 billion. The portfolio rotation is essentially complete: Alibaba, Nvidia, a chunk of T-Mobile — all gone, proceeds funneled into one concentrated position.
There’s a structural caveat worth taking seriously: virtually none of these gains are cash. These are paper profits on a private company whose valuation has been set largely by SoftBank itself. Meanwhile, the rest of the Vision Fund is quietly deteriorating. Coupang, DiDi Global, and Klarna all recorded losses.
WHAT’S NEXT
The credit markets have noticed. S&P Global moved its outlook on SoftBank to “negative” in March, warning that financial capacity and asset liquidity could erode as the commitment expands. The concern is straightforward: SoftBank has taken on $40 billion in bridge loans to fund equity stakes in a private company it cannot easily sell.
