U.S. stock futures pointed to modest gains Monday morning as investors weighed a new record-high close for the S&P 500 against renewed uncertainty over a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
The S&P 500 futures contract rose 0.12% and the Nasdaq-100 equivalent gained 0.38%, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovering just south of unchanged. WTI crude oil climbed more than 1%, and Brent crude futures were trading around $84 a barrel, as investors awaited developments from the Middle East.
The moves come after the three major indexes wrapped up their strongest week since April, a stretch that saw the S&P 500 reach a fresh all-time closing high.
A weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which showed a surprise contraction in nonfarm payrolls, sent stocks higher on Friday and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate-hiking campaign. Markets are now assigning about a 44% chance to a September rate increase, according to CNBC, a sharp pullback from the 67% odds seen just one week ago.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, declared Sunday that talks could not resume while Washington remained in breach of the June memorandum of understanding and had yet to make amends for those breaches, per Tasnim News Agency, a semi-official outlet with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Tehran separately issued its conditions for restoring access through the Strait of Hormuz — among them a full American troop pullout, the lifting of all sanctions, and war reparations — according to The Wall Street Journal. Iran has separately said it is closing in on a deal with Oman over the critical shipping lane.
Those signals stand in tension with remarks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made to CNBC last week indicating an agreement was close at hand, as well as with President Donald Trump’s statement to Axios on Sunday that Washington was “only semi-negotiating” with Iran and intended to keep squeezing it economically.
Across Asia, major indexes finished Monday’s session in positive territory, carried higher by Wall Street’s Friday rally. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1% to 66,970, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 1%, and Seoul’s Kospi ended up 0.65%. European stocks opened near flat, with London’s FTSE 100 down 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 flat, and Germany’s DAX up 0.1%.
Investors will be watching Wednesday’s consumer price index report for July. Analysts surveyed ahead of the release anticipate annual consumer-price growth of 3.4%, which would mark a modest step down from June’s 3.5% reading, according to The Wall Street Journal. Earnings reports from On Holding, Cava Group, Super Micro, and CoreWeave are also due this week.
