Wall Street flashed a fresh technical warning Monday as the S&P 500 slipped below a key trend level, even as crude oil endured one of its most violent intraday drops since the pandemic-era crash.
The benchmark index, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), closed below its 100-day moving average for the second consecutive session.
The last comparable breakdown occurred on Feb. 27, 2025. Over the following weeks the S&P 500 dropped almost 20% ― nearing the threshold of a so-called “bear market.”
A Familiar Technical Warning
The 100-day moving average is widely regarded as a medium-term trend indicator. When prices close beneath it — particularly for multiple consecutive sessions — it often signals a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
Whether this breakdown mirrors the severity of last year’s decline remains to be seen, but the macro backdrop — particularly in energy — remains extremely volatile.
Crude Just Had One Of Its Most Volatile Day In History
Monday marked the tenth day since the start of the war involving Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow shipping corridor normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows – still effectively blocked.
Oil markets delivered one of the most violent trading sessions in modern history.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged to an overnight high of $119 per barrel before collapsing below $90 later in the session.
The $38 spread between the intraday high and low represents the largest daily trading range since April 2020, when crude prices briefly turned negative during the pandemic demand collapse.
Such volatility reflects a market caught between fear of prolonged supply disruption on one side and hopes for a swift resolution on the other.
Trump Signals Emergency Actions, Touts Military Progress
President Donald Trump confirmed Monday that his administration is considering a wide range of measures to curb prices.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Trump administration is evaluating several policy options aimed at stabilizing fuel prices.
Potential measures include restricting U.S. crude exports, intervening in oil futures markets and waiving certain federal fuel taxes to ease costs for consumers.
Another option under consideration involves lifting shipping requirements under the Jones Act.
The law requires fuel transported between U.S. ports to travel on American-built and American-flagged ships, a restriction that can limit domestic supply flexibility during crises.
Temporarily suspending those rules could allow foreign vessels to move fuel between U.S. ports more easily.
The Kobeissi Letter also said the White House is increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of surging energy prices.
On the military front, President Trump struck a notably optimistic tone, telling CBS News that he believes the war is running “very far ahead of schedule” and that is now “complete.”
“They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter,” Trump said.
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