Economic data released on Wednesday were mixed for equities. U.S. durable goods orders rose +0.8% m/m in March, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m, and core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, climbed +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m. Also, U.S. March housing starts unexpectedly rose +10.8% m/m to a 15-month high of 1.502 million, stronger than expectations of 1.380 million. At the same time, U.S. March building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -10.8% m/m to a 7-month low of 1.372 million, weaker than expectations of 1.390 million.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50%-3.75%. However, the meeting revealed a widening split over the outlook for policy amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan “supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time,” the Fed’s statement said. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate cut. The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented from an FOMC decision.
“The three dissents on the statement’s language point to a marginally more hawkish tilt, as some officials prepare for the possibility that inflation remains higher for longer. We expect the Fed to remain firmly on hold in the months ahead as it assesses how the conflict unfolds,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones.
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will stay at the central bank as a governor after his term as chair ends. “After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined,” Powell said.
Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee voted Wednesday to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate. Once confirmed, Warsh would take Miran’s seat.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.8% chance of no rate change and a 1.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in June.
First-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from high-profile companies today, including Apple (AAPL), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck & Co. (MRK), Mastercard (MA), and Caterpillar (CAT). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y in March, compared to +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y in February.
The U.S. Commerce Department’s advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter, supported by robust business investment.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be released today. Economists project March Personal Spending to climb +0.9% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.3% m/m, compared to the February figures of +0.5% m/m and -0.1% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Employment Cost Index will come in today. Economists expect the ECI to rise +0.8% q/q in the first quarter, compared to +0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be reported today. Economists forecast the April figure at 54.8, compared to the previous value of 52.8.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today. Economists expect the February figure to drop -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.1% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 213K, compared to last week’s number of 214K.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.40%, down -0.68%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.11% this morning as investors assessed the latest developments in the Middle East conflict, digested fresh economic data and corporate earnings, and braced for monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Media stocks led the declines on Thursday, weighed down by a more than -5% slump in Universal Music Group (UMG.A.DX) after it reported lower Q1 revenue and said it would sell half of its equity stake in Spotify. Bank stocks also slumped, dragged lower by declines in BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) and Societe Generale (GLE.FP) following their quarterly results. In addition, luxury stocks slid. Preliminary data from Eurostat released on Thursday showed that the Eurozone economy weakened in the first quarter and is likely to face headwinds ahead as a surge in energy prices restrains consumer spending and postpones a hoped-for industrial recovery. Separately, preliminary data showed that the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in April, hitting its highest level since September 2023. Investor focus now turns to interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank later in the day. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%. Any shift in guidance will draw investor attention, given that the Middle East conflict has likely both fueled inflation pressures and undermined growth prospects. The ECB is widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% as it assesses the impact of the conflict. ECB officials are expected to signal a rate hike as early as June to counter energy-driven inflationary pressures.
Germany’s Retail Sales, Germany’s Unemployment Change, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, Eurozone’s CPI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Core CPI (preliminary), Eurozone’s GDP (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.
The German March Retail Sales fell -2.0% m/m and -2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
The German April Unemployment Change stood at 20K, weaker than expectations of 4K.
The German April Unemployment Rate was 6.4%, weaker than expectations of 6.3%.
Eurozone’s April CPI rose +3.0% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone’s April Core CPI rose +2.2% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone’s GDP has been reported at +0.1% q/q and +0.8% y/y in the first quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.9% y/y.
Eurozone’s March Unemployment Rate was 6.2%, in line with expectations.
Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.11%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.06%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today, supported by strength in the tech sector and upbeat domestic factory activity data. Technology stocks rallied on Thursday, with Cambricon Technologies jumping +20% after the AI chipmaker’s Q1 revenue more than doubled amid Beijing’s push for self-sufficiency in critical technologies. The benchmark index posted its largest monthly gain since August of last year. An official survey released on Thursday showed that China’s factory activity grew at a slower pace in April but exceeded expectations, indicating limited strain from rising energy prices as the Middle East conflict drags on. At the same time, China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers both services and construction activity, slipped back into contraction territory in April, pointing to weak domestic demand. Separately, a private survey showed that China’s manufacturing sector expanded in April at the quickest pace since the end of 2020, fueled by higher output and a surge in new orders. Compared with the official gauge, the RatingDog survey places greater emphasis on China’s smaller private firms, and its readings can diverge from the official survey, which tracks large state-owned enterprises. Citi analysts said that China’s economy continues to follow an uneven growth trajectory, with exports and production remaining the main drivers of expansion. “The headline picture remained broadly solid, but the economy’s K-shaped divergence has become entrenched,” the analysts said. Mainland China’s financial markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday starting Friday, with trading set to resume next Wednesday.
The Chinese April Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, stronger than expectations of 50.1.
The Chinese April Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 49.4, weaker than expectations of 49.9.
The Chinese April RatingDog Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2, stronger than expectations of 50.9.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today as worries about the prolonged Middle East conflict and mixed corporate earnings dampened sentiment. Oil prices rose in Tokyo trading amid fears of an escalation in the conflict after Axios reported that U.S. President Trump was set to receive a briefing on Thursday regarding new plans for potential military action in Iran. Japan is among the most exposed major economies to the fallout of Middle East tensions, with over 90% of its oil imports sourced from the region. Technology stocks were among the biggest losers on Thursday. Utility, financial, and industrial stocks also slumped. Still, the benchmark index posted its strongest monthly gain since October 2025. Government data released on Thursday showed that Japan’s monthly industrial production unexpectedly declined in March as output of various chemical and petroleum-based goods plunged, though companies expect factory activity to rebound in the coming months. Separately, data showed that Japan’s retail sales rose more than expected in March, rebounding after declines in the previous month. “Still, with no end in sight to the Middle East conflict and oil prices holding firm at high levels, the risk of a slump in private consumption remains a lingering concern,” according to SMBC Nikko Securities economists. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields climbed on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a 29-year high, as rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns. The Bank of Japan projected core inflation hovering around 3%, well above its 2% target, for two consecutive years under a risk scenario released on Thursday that assumed persistently high oil prices and a weakening yen. In corporate news, Fujitsu plunged over -13% after the software and IT services company issued below-consensus annual operating profit guidance. Also, Oriental Land sank more than -10% after the Tokyo Disney Resort operator warned of a drop in operating profit this year due to higher labor costs and repair expenses. At the same time, TDK climbed about +8% after projecting a 15% increase in net profit for the current financial year. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -9.87% to 28.58.
The Japanese March Industrial Production (preliminary) unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m.
The Japanese March Retail Sales rose +1.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
The Japanese April Household Confidence came in at 32.2, weaker than expectations of 32.8.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after Google’s parent company reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results.
Amazon.com (AMZN) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after the e-commerce and technology giant posted strong Q1 results, issued above-consensus Q2 revenue guidance, and CEO Andy Jassy said the company now holds over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium, AWS’s AI chip.
Qualcomm (QCOM) jumped over +11% in pre-market trading after the chip company reported better-than-expected FQ2 results and CEO Cristiano Amon told analysts that initial shipments of a custom data-center chip are slated to begin in the December quarter with a hyperscaler.
Meta Platforms (META) slumped over -8% in pre-market trading after the social media giant raised its full-year capital expenditures guidance.
Microsoft (MSFT) slipped more than -1% in pre-market trading as growth in the technology giant’s cloud-computing business in FQ3 fell short of lofty expectations.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday – April 30th
Apple (AAPL), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck & Co. (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), Sandisk (SNDK), ConocoPhillips (COP), Western Digital (WDC), Stryker (SYK), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY), Altria Group (MO), The Southern Company (SO), Trane Technologies (TT), Quanta Services (PWR), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), The Cigna Group (CI), Valero Energy (VLO), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), AMETEK (AME), Carrier Global (CARR), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Xcel Energy (XEL), Cardinal Health (CAH), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Roblox (RBLX), American International Group (AIG), The Hershey Company (HSY), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Iron Mountain (IRM), ResMed (RMD), DTE Energy Company (DTE), TechnipFMC (FTI), MasTec (MTZ), Hubbell (HUBB), Reddit (RDDT), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA), XPO, Inc. (XPO), Entegris (ENTG), DexCom (DXCM), T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), Twilio (TWLO), Labcorp Holdings (LH), APi Group (APG), Smurfit Westrock (SW), First Solar (FSLR), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), ATI Inc. (ATI), Fortive (FTV), Alliant Energy (LNT), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Illumina (ILMN), Atlassian (TEAM), International Paper Company (IP), Weyerhaeuser Company (WY), Roku, Inc. (ROKU), Kimco Realty (KIM), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Textron (TXT), Hyatt Hotels (H), WESCO International (WCC), DT Midstream (DTM), Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO), Blue Owl Capital (OWL), Penumbra (PEN), The Clorox Company (CLX), Saia, Inc. (SAIA), Camden Property Trust (CPT), GoDaddy (GDDY), The Ensign Group (ENSG), SPX Technologies (SPXC), Encompass Health (EHC), Darling Ingredients (DAR), Wayfair (W), Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), CubeSmart (CUBE), InterDigital (IDCC), Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR), Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI), Baxter International (BAX), A. O. Smith (AOS), NNN REIT (NNN), Kirby (KEX), Eastman Chemical Company (EMN), IDACORP (IDA), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP.A), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), AptarGroup (ATR), LKQ Corporation (LKQ), Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO.B), Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO), Ingram Micro Holding (INGM), Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR), Healthcare Realty Trust (HR), Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), Dolby Laboratories (DLB), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Arcosa (ACA), ADT Inc. (ADT), CNX Resources (CNX), Balchem (BCPC), Axos Financial (AX), FTI Consulting (FCN), Granite Construction (GVA), Schneider National (SNDR), Choice Hotels International (CHH), Brunswick (BC), Floor & Decor Holdings (FND), PBF Energy (PBF), Crocs (CROX), Corcept Therapeutics (CORT), Casella Waste Systems (CWST), Belden (BDC), Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), AXT, Inc. (AXTI), Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), Laureate Education (LAUR), Tanger (SKT), Zeta Global Holdings (ZETA), Frontdoor (FTDR).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
