JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman just dropped one of the most bearish calls on Wall Street: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares could fall roughly 60% from current levels, with the bank maintaining its $145 price target and an Underweight rating on the stock (1).
The note came after Tesla reported first-quarter 2026 deliveries of about 358,000 vehicles, missing the Bloomberg consensus of 372,000 and JPMorgan’s own forecast of 385,000. Making matters worse, Tesla manufactured over 408,000 vehicles but delivered only 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 unsold units in a single quarter (2). JPMorgan estimates that Tesla’s total global unsold inventory has now climbed to a record 164,000 vehicles (3).
Brinkman’s case boils down to a widening disconnect between Tesla’s stock price and its actual financial performance. Since mid-2022, when consensus delivery forecasts peaked, Wall Street’s projections for Tesla’s revenue and earnings have continued to decline, yet the stock has climbed roughly 50% over the same period. The bank also cut its full-year 2026 EPS estimate from $2.00 to $1.80, now below the Street consensus of $1.95.
The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit removed a key demand lever in Tesla’s most profitable market, Chinese competition continues to compress global share, and brand damage from Musk’s political activities remains difficult to quantify but clearly felt (4). European registrations fell by as much as 49% in early 2026 across some markets, partially attributed to consumer backlash against Musk’s political involvement (5).
And then there’s the cash question. Tesla announced $20 billion in planned capital expenditures for 2026 to fund Cybercab, Semi and Optimus, roughly $11 billion to $12 billion more than it spent last year, at a time when its regulatory credit revenue is fading (1).
But here’s the thing: betting against Tesla has been one of the most painful trades in market history.
As of early 2024, Tesla short sellers had accumulated a net loss of $61.8 billion, according to S3 Partners data (6). In 2023 alone, shorts lost a combined $12.2 billion as Tesla shares more than doubled (6). And after the 2024 presidential election, hedge funds holding short positions took an on-paper hit of at least $5.2 billion as shares surged on Musk’s political ties (7).
