The Trump Administration’s Bond Market Intervention Will Be a Spectacular Failure

With roughly two-thirds of 2026 now in the books, investors have plenty of reasons to smile. The iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and innovation-inspired Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) have all catapulted to several record highs this year. We’ve also witnessed the largest-ever initial public offering take shape.

But despite all three stock indexes climbing to fresh highs, things are far from perfect on Wall Street. Specifically, the bond market is sending investors a warning sign that simply can’t be swept under the rug.

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Since the start of the year, long-duration Treasury bond yields (10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds) have noticeably risen. The 30-year yield recently hit a 19-year high, while the 10-year yield has approached levels last seen during the financial crisis.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aims to tackle rapidly rising long-duration bond yields. Image source: Official White House Photo by Abe McNatt.

Although President Donald Trump’s Administration has announced plans to reduce long-duration Treasury bond yields, a trio of factors strongly suggests that these efforts will be a spectacular failure.

The Trump administration aims to lower long-term Treasury bond yields

Since President Trump’s second, non-consecutive term began, he’s been a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. More specifically, he called on former Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to aggressively lower interest rates. Although the Powell-led Fed did lower interest rates six times from September 2024 to December 2025, it simply wasn’t enough to appease the president.

Trump has previously opined that interest rates should be 1% or lower. He firmly believes that lower interest rates can fuel job creation, innovation, and economic growth. But perhaps most importantly, lower interest rates would make it considerably easier for the U.S. government to service its national debt.

On Aug. 19, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury Department would, at a minimum, double its scheduled long-duration bond repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion.

Not long thereafter, it was reported that the Treasury Department might consider using some of the $950 billion accumulated in its General Account to conduct more aggressive long-term bond buybacks.

Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, purchasing bonds would be expected to drive up prices and weigh on yields. Higher long-term Treasury bond yields can translate into higher corporate borrowing costs, and, in the case of the 10-year, can increase mortgage rates. If the U.S. Treasury increases its bond-buying program, it would, in theory, lower long-term bond yields and make borrowing less costly for businesses and housing more affordable for the public.

The Treasury Department’s bond-buying program is doomed from the start

While Bessent’s plan might sound great on paper, the Trump administration’s bond-market intervention has almost no chance of succeeding. There are three structural reasons why bond yields at the long end of the yield curve have soared this year, and none of these dynamics will change if the U.S. Treasury increases its scheduled long-duration bond buybacks.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Entrenched Trumpflation is driving up long-duration bond yields

The first factor that’ll render the Trump administration’s bond-buying efforts moot is elevated inflation.

While a modest level of inflation is expected in an expanding economy, Trumpflation (inflation driven by President Trump’s policies) is pushing prices noticeably higher. The president’s tariffs have been pushing up consumer prices for more than a year.

However, the Iran war (and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz) is a much bigger contributor to elevated inflation, which hit a three-year high of 4.2% in May. The price stickiness of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) suggests that Trumpflation has become entrenched in the broader economy and is no longer just an energy supply issue.

When inflation climbs well above the FOMC’s long-term target of 2%, long-duration bond yields also rise. This happens because bond investors demand higher yields to offset the potential loss of buying power due to inflation. Any efforts by the Trump administration to lower long-term bond yields without a significant reduction in Core PCE would likely fail.

2. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward-looking guidance has unintended consequences

Secondly, reforms implemented by President Trump’s handpicked Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will make it virtually impossible for the Treasury’s bond-buying program to drive down yields.

During Warsh’s May 22 swearing-in ceremony at the White House, he vowed to lead a reform-oriented Fed. To date, the biggest adjustment he’s made is removing forward-looking guidance from FOMC meeting statements.

It’s been customary for more than two decades for Fed chairs to include this guidance, which stated whether the FOMC was more likely to hike or cut interest rates as its next move. Generally, the more information and transparency equity and bond markets receive from the nation’s central bank, the more orderly they are.

Warsh removed forward-looking guidance because he wanted Wall Street to react to real data and not rumors. The new Fed chair also felt that forward-looking guidance potentially constrained the FOMC’s monetary policy.

But in removing this guidance, Warsh has made the bond market considerably more volatile. When the prevailing inflation rate is well above or below the FOMC’s long-term 2% target, bond traders are more likely to anticipate policy moves at the long end of the yield curve. This bond market volatility isn’t going away as long as Warsh withholds forward-looking guidance in FOMC statements.

3. Crippling national debt can’t be swept under the rug

The third structural issue that’ll make Bessent’s announced bond-buying intervention a failure is America’s unsightly national debt. On Aug. 19, U.S. total debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time.

Federal deficits are nothing new for our country. With the exception of four years under former President Bill Clinton (1998-2001), the U.S. has run a federal deficit every year since 1970. These spending deficits have been especially pronounced over the last six years, with federal government spending outpacing income by $1.37 trillion to $3.1 trillion each year.

Soaring long-duration Treasury bond yields are, in part, a reaction to the perceived risk and unsustainability of America’s rapidly rising national debt. Even though the U.S. has never failed to make its interest payments or redeem its debt obligations when they mature, rising long-duration yields indicate that bond traders want a juicier yield to assume the growing risks of America’s crippling debt.

Even if the Treasury Department were to, hypothetically, throw the kitchen sink (its $950 billion General Account) at its bond-buying program, it would hardly make a dent in the nation’s debt pile, and it wouldn’t resolve structural issues with persistent federal deficits.

In other words, the U.S. Treasury’s bond market intervention is pure theater that overlooks structural deficiencies (elevated inflation, crippling debt, and unsustainable federal deficits) that really need to be addressed.

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Opinion: The Trump Administration’s Bond Market Intervention Will Be a Spectacular Failure was originally published by The Motley Fool