The US 30-year Treasury yield hit a fresh 19-year high on Friday, pressuring ETFs that hold long-duration bonds. The yield climbed as high as 5.27%, its highest level since July 2007, extending a breakout above the range that had contained it since 2023.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), the largest fund focused on long-term Treasuries with about $42 billion in assets, is now down 3.8% for the year. That has wiped out most of the 4.3% it returned last year.
The pressure comes even though the Fed held rates steady at its July meeting. Three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and market-based indicators now point to the possibility of one as soon as the September meeting. The fed funds rate currently sits in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Even with a hike on the table, the long end has borne more of the strain than shorter maturities, driven by elevated inflation and worries about the government’s debt load. The 10-year has climbed too, to around 4.75%, though it remains below its 2023 high of roughly 5%. The 2-year, which tracks the Fed’s moves more closely, is around 4.25%, almost a full percentage point below where it peaked in 2023.
This isn’t only a US story. The long end has been under similar pressure in Europe, Japan, and elsewhere. And the 30-year matters less for the real economy than the 10-year, which sets the tone for mortgage rates. Still, a yield at levels last seen almost two decades ago is worth watching.
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