Wheat, Soybean, and Corn Prices Fall to Start a New Month. What to Watch Next.
Corn with green husk via Say-Cheese via iStock December corn (ZCZ26) futures on Friday fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.64, hit a two-week low, and for the week were down 23 1/4 cents. November soybeans (ZSX26) fell 1 1/4 cents to $11.87 1/2, hit a three-week low, and for the week lost 66 cents. September…
December corn (ZCZ26) futures on Friday fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.64, hit a two-week low, and for the week were down 23 1/4 cents. November soybeans (ZSX26) fell 1 1/4 cents to $11.87 1/2, hit a three-week low, and for the week lost 66 cents. September soft red winter (SRW) wheat (ZWU26) futures lost 24 1/4 cents to $6.39 1/4, hit a three-week low, and for the week were down 38 3/4 cents. September hard red winter (HRW) wheat (KEU26) futures fell 23 1/4 cents to $7.07 1/2, hit a nearly three-week low, and for the week were down 37 3/4 cents.
The grain market bulls stumbled badly this week, including Friday’s technically bearish weekly low closes, to suggest the summertime rallies have run their course. The grain markets today saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the speculators featured late last week.
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Wetter weather forecasts for the drier western Corn Belt are bearish for corn and soybean prices. Price action in grain futures markets late last week suggests the summertime highs may not be revisited in the near term. It’s very likely going to take a U.S. soybean crop weather market scare in August to reignite bullish enthusiasm in soybeans, which then could spill over into better buying interest in wheat and corn.
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The other potentially bullish factor for the soybean complex futures would be any surge in China demand for U.S. soybeans. The USDA on Friday reported daily sales of 252,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year. China’s Sinograin sold about half of the 504,000 MT of imported soybeans on offer at its auction, which was the biggest since January, according to Reuters, which cited traders familiar with the matter. “Prices are not particularly attractive. Some traders maintain the auctions are to make room for the arrival for new U.S. soybean cargoes,” said the report.
Tensions between the U.S. and China over the war in Iran and in trade will also heighten the importance of the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping that is scheduled in Washington, D.C., in September.
USDA Data, Pro Farmer Tour to Potentially Move Corn, Soybean Prices
Grain traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. The USDA’s 4 percentage- point drop in the good to excellent condition categories for the U.S. corn crop in last week’s report reflected the impact of hot and dry weather in the western Corn Belt. While condition ratings are not a perfect predictor of the initial yield forecast, traders will closely eye this afternoon’s crop progress data for clues to what the USDA might release in its initial yield forecast in its Aug. 12 supply and demand (WASDE) report.
Corn and soybean traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s monthly USDA crushings report. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the agency to report 466 million bushels of U.S. corn were crushed for ethanol in June, which would be up 4.4% from last year. The USDA crush data is also expected to show soybeans crushed in June around 10% higher than at the same time last year.
The Pro Farmer crop tour in late August is coming into corn and soybean trader focus. It’s so far looking like good corn and soybean crops will be harvested this fall. That’s price-bearish at present. However, domestic and export demand for corn remains solid. And with August arguably the most important growing month for the U.S. soybean crop and with geopolitics moving the wheat markets, don’t be surprised if the corn futures market becomes a follower of soybeans and/or wheat markets for the next several weeks.
Russia-Ukraine War Remains in Focus for Winter Wheat
Winter wheat futures bulls were disappointed Friday as prices got no traction from reports that Russia’s main grain lobby group warned on Friday that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and ports shut down grain exports via the Black Sea for the near future. Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters and Producers told Reuters that the shortfall in supply of Russian wheat to other countries this season could reach 30-25 million metric tons, accounting for around 15% of total global wheat trade.
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Despite last week’s losses, the prospect of reduced shipping volumes in the Black Sea region will likely keep a floor under winter wheat futures prices. Global wheat ending stocks could potentially move lower from current levels once again, as most of Western Europe has seen hot and dry weather damage crops there.
Good wheat harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays, said weather forecasters. Meantime, spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain and very warm to hot temperatures. U.S. spring wheat acres impacted by drought hit a high for the growing season at 42% as of July 28.
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Let me know what you think. I enjoy hearing from my valued Barchart readers all around the globe. Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com.
On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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