Colder US Weather Forecasts Lift Nat-Gas Prices

May Nymex natural gas (NGK26) on Monday closed up +0.027 (+1.07%).

Nat-gas prices settled higher on Monday as short covering emerged amid colder US weather forecasts, potentially boosting nat-gas heating demand.  The Commodity Weather Group on Monday said forecasts shifted colder, with below-average temperatures expected across the Northeastern US and Upper Midwest from May 2-11.

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Last Friday, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low amid robust US gas storage.  EIA nat-gas inventories as of April 17 were +7.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant US nat-gas supplies.

Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices.  On April 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 109.59 bcf/day from a March estimate of 109.49 bcf/day.  US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.

The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for the foreseeable future is supportive for nat-gas as the closure will curb Middle Eastern nat-gas supplies, potentially boosting US nat-gas exports to make up for the shortfall.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Monday was 110.7 bcf/day (+3.8% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Monday was 69.4 bcf/day (+9.8% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday were 19.5 bcf/day (-2.1% w/w), according to BNEF.

Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies.  On March 19, Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City.   Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan’s LNG export capacity,  a damage that will take three to five years to repair.   The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports.  Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.

As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended April 18 rose +6.5% y/y to 77,299 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending April 18 rose +1.8% y/y to 4,327,186 GWh.

Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended April 17 rose by +103 bcf, above expectations of _97 bcf and well above the 5-year weekly average of +64 bcf.  As of April 17, nat-gas inventories were up +6.7% y/y, and +7.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.  As of April 21, gas storage in Europe was 31% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 43% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending April 24 rose by +4 to 129, modestly below the 2.5-year high of 134 rigs set on February 27.  In the past 19 months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.75-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com