The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 2.95% last week. Investors fled consumer staples stocks like Sherwin-Williams (SHW) while rotating into software-adjacent stocks like IBM (IBM), Salesforce (CRM), and Microsoft (MSFT).
Tariff fears also drove rotation from manufacturers like Nike and Caterpillar to software names like IBM and Microsoft whose revenues cross borders as data not goods.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) had a rough week, falling 2.95% as tariff anxiety, macro uncertainty, and a VIX spike to 23.75 rattled blue-chip investors.
That fear gauge is now sitting at its 88th percentile over the past year, we’ll see if that continues as much of this week’s sell-off came from worries the war in Iran could drag out and leave oil prices elevated for an extended period.
Stock
| Weekly Change |
|---|
IBM | +7.76% |
Microsoft (MSFT)
| +4.13% |
Salesforce (CRM) | +3.76% |
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) | -9.02% |
Caterpillar (CAT) | -8.34% |
Nike (NKE) | -8.31% |
The headline story of the week was that consumer staples stocks, which have been a safe haven so far in 2026, came under pressure. That sell-off was best seen in the price of Sherwin-Williams, which declined 9.02% last week. Sherwin-Williams shares were trading for 32X earnings, a high multiple for a company that’s expected to see 4% sales growth this year.
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On the other hand, software stocks that have been broadly sold-off in 2026 saw a rebound last week. IBM shares may be down more than 11% year-to-date, but they bounced back 7.8% in the past week as this rotational trade drove investors back into the sector.
Let’s look at a few other Dow stocks with major news this week.
Salesforce gained 3.76% this week, closing at $202.11, but the real story is the analyst war playing out in the background. On March 6, two firms went in opposite directions on the stock.
Stephens cut its price target from $285 to $241 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, reflecting concern over sluggish revenue growth. On the same day, Phillip Securities analyst Paul Chew reiterated a Buy rating with a $253 price target, pointing to rapid Agentforce adoption and expanding AI revenues as the bull case. Meanwhile, Citi’s Tyler Radke held his Hold rating, nudging his target only to $200 from $197.
The divide reflects a genuine debate about whether Salesforce’s AI pivot is a growth accelerator or a distraction from decelerating core software revenue. The bull case has real data behind it: Agentforce ARR hit $800 million, up 169% year over year, with 29,000 deals closed since launch. The bear case continues to focus on margin erosion across software: Morningstar downgraded Salesforce’s moat rating from wide to narrow, citing AI disruption to traditional seat-based software models. It’s worth noting however that their price target of $300 still would give substantial upside to the stock.
The stock is still down nearly 24% year to date, so one good week does not resolve the debate. However, the recent change in software sentiment is worth paying attention to.
Microsoft added 4.13% this week, closing at $408.96, even as a pair of regulatory and product concerns surfaced. On March 7, reports confirmed Microsoft faces an antitrust probe in Japan, adding to an already crowded list of regulatory risks for the company. Separately, a March 6 analysis identified four obstacles slowing paid Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption: confusing product naming, high costs relative to free AI alternatives, difficulty proving ROI, and compliance concerns.
On the positive side, Microsoft announced new Cloud PC devices launching in Q3 2026 in partnership with ASUS and Dell, deepening its Windows 365 ecosystem. The White House’s emerging AI policy framework, which would mandate “any lawful use” access for AI firms, could also benefit Microsoft’s broad AI infrastructure footprint if implemented.
The stock remains down 15% year to date, so this week’s bounce should be read as stabilization, not a reversal. The underlying business remains strong: Azure grew 39% last quarter and the Intelligent Cloud segment crossed $50 billion in a single quarter for the first time. But regulatory friction and Copilot adoption challenges are real variables that investors will need to track heading into the next earnings cycle.
Nike dropped 8.31% this week to $57.01, making it one of the Dow’s worst performers alongside Caterpillar, which fell 8.34%. The common thread: tariff exposure.
For Nike specifically, new 15% global tariffs are forcing the company to restructure its supply chain and reduce manufacturing in China for U.S.-bound footwear. That compounds an already difficult setup: Greater China revenue fell 17% in Nike’s most recent quarter, and gross margins are already under pressure from tariff-related costs. Consumer sentiment is not helping either, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index sitting at 56.4, well below the 80 threshold that typically signals healthy consumer spending.
Caterpillar faces a parallel problem from the industrial side. The company absorbed $1.03 billion in tariff-related manufacturing costs last quarter, and with no specific 2026 guidance provided at earnings, investors have little visibility into how management plans to navigate an escalating trade environment.
So, this week saw new pressures on many stocks that have been seeing strong gains in 2026, such as Caterpillar, while providing a needed ‘bounce back’ for deeply sold off stocks like Salesforce and Microsoft.
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